Even at the risk of bringing on an “avalanche of illogic” (per Mike
Fisher) when saying anything slightly positive about the Cowboy
https://www.dallascowboysfanshop.com/Antwaun-Woods-Jersey , I’m going to start this post with some good news.The Cowboys have only been
called for 20 accepted penalties on offense this season. On a per-game basis,
that ties the Cowboys for the 13th-fewest penalties in the league. Things look
even better on defense, where they are tied for the 9th-fewest penalties (15).
It wasn’t so long ago that the Cowboys regularly ranked among the most penalized
teams in the league, so that’s definitely something to feel good about.
Unfortunately, that’s it in terms of good news for today. So now for the bad
news.16 of those 20 penalties resulted in a stalled drive, meaning no points
were scored on the drive and no first down was achieved after the penalty
incurred. So when you see an offensive penalty and automatically believe that
drive is dead, that’s because four out of five times it actually is.And that
stalled drive percentage of 80% ranks the Cowboys dead last in a league where
the average is 56% and the best teams have a rate below 40%. Some will be quick
to point out that this is all on the coaching, which would be true if it weren’t
for the players committing the penalties. Others will reflexively blame Jerry
Jones for this, which would be at least partly true if we were talking about the
1964 University of Arkansas National Championship team for which he played on
the offensive line and was a co-captain. And so it is that almost every time the
discussion turns to problems the Cowboys have, some intellectual high-flyer will
inevitably propose a simple solution to the problem like “Fire Jason Garrett,”
which is inevitably followed by “!!!,” because everybody knows that extra
exclamation marks automatically validate the preceding message; the exclamation
mark has become the selfie of grammar.But like in every other avenue of life,
while simple answers are attractive precisely because they are less
intellectually demanding, they also almost never work.So let’s study the data a
bit further to find out what’s ailing the Cowboys offense, and we’ll start by
breaking down the calls that have gone against the Cowboys this year, by player,
not including penalties that were declined or offset: The penalties here didn’t
just go against some scrubs, they include some of the faces of the franchise:
two former number one picks in Smith and Elliott, the quarterback (I put
Prescott in here for the three delay-of-game penalties, but the NFL considers
these a team penalty and doesn’t assign them to an individual player), a
second-round pick in Williams
DeMarcus Ware Jersey , and in Collins a guy who was almost a first-round pick.Should Garrett bench Prescott for a couple of snaps after every
delay-of-game penalty? Tell Tyron Smith to sit in a corner for a drive and
reflect on what a bad boy he’s been for that holding penalty? Take away La’el
Collins’ helmet after every penalty and tell him to “think about what you’ve
done.” How about cutting Ezekiel Elliott to set an example; after all, Jimmy
Johnson would have done that, no?The O-line is responsible for 12 of the 20
penalties and 9 of the 16 stalled drives, and while that may be part of the
reason why Paul Alexander was fired, that’s not enough to blame the O-line alone
for the stalled drives. Or any other player for that matter.Another data point
worth looking at is when the penalties happened, on the hypothesis that a
penalty on third down will be a lot harder to overcome than a penalty on first
down. Here’s the split for the penalties on the 16 stalled drives:1st down: 4
penalties2nd down: 5 penalties3rd down: 7 penaltiesInterestingly, of the four
penalties that didn’t result in a stalled drive, three were on 1st down, one on
2nd. That suggests incurring more penalties on later downs was likely
detrimental to the Cowboys’ stuffed drive percentage, but it’s probably not
enough to explain away the Cowboys’ 80% stuffed drive percentage.On to our next
and final data point, in which we look at what the Cowboys did on the play
immediately following the penalty. On 14 of the 16 plays, the Cowboys offense
had 10 or more yards to go. Here are the details: Two things stand out to me
here:Why would you run on any down with 15+ yards to go? I understand the
theoretical need to get the run/pass balance right, but when you know your
offense has issues when it’s behind the sticks, why call a run that will net you
five or six yards when you need 15+? What’s up with the short passes on long
downs?The Cowboys chose a pass play on nine of the 14 plays in the chart above.
None of them netted more than 13 yards, most were completions well sort of the
sticks. It’d be easy to simply blame this on the quarterback and be done with
it, but that would be too simple. The issue here is that the Cowboys don’t seem
to have any plays that will reliably result in long completions. And that’s on
the QB. But it’s also on the receivers. And the O-line. And the playcalling. And
the offensive scheme. And on Jerry Jones, because, well, ... because!!! Perhaps
the issues after penalties are symptomatic of a more general issue for the
Cowboys offense: the inability to generate big plays when they need them.On 2nd
or 3rd down with 11+ yards to go, the 2018 Cowboys achieved a 1st down on just
four out of 46 plays (8.7%). That 1st-down percentage ranks them 31st in a
league that averages 15.7% and where the leading team (Chargers) averages
37%.Which means the inability to convert after a penalty is not an issue
specific to penalties, but is merely an indication of a much broader issue in
Dallas. The Cowboys are a run-first
Ezekiel Elliott Color Rush Jersey , ball-control offense. As such, the entire offense is predicated on “staying on schedule” with a high percentage of
runs and a lot of short passes on first and second down that are designed to get
the team into manageable third-down situations. That methodical approach to
moving the chains is only occasionally interspersed with a play designed to gain
big yardage. In 2016, that worked perfectly. The Cowboys stormed to a 13-3
record by staying on schedule: No team ran the ball on a higher percentage of
first-down plays than the Cowboys, who did it on 59.8% of all first downs.
Ezekiel Elliott led the league in first-down rushes with 204, averaging 5.5
yards a pop en route to establishing one of the most efficient offenses in the
league that year. The Cowboys averaged 6.84 yards-to-go on third down, the
sixth-best value in the league; Dak Prescott had the sixth-best completion
percentage in the NFL on third downs (65.1%) and the sixth-best passer rating.
All of this resulted in an offense that ranked fourth overall with 2.54 points
scored per drive.The problem is that a penalty (or any other play that results
in a loss of yardage), short-circuits that entire offensive plan. Suddenly the
offense is derailed and no longer “on schedule”. And when that happens, teams
usually thumb through their playbook until they reach the ‘big-play section.’
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, most of the pages in the big-play section are
either blank or filled with plays the team can’t properly execute.Which is why
in 2018, the offense isn’t working anymore. The Cowboys are still running the
ball a lot on first down (ranked fourth with 58.4% of runs on first down), and
Ezekiel Elliott still runs a lot on first down (ranked fourth with 83 runs)
averaging an impressive 5.7 yards. But the Cowboys are now facing 7.38
yards-to-go on third down, which ranks them 22nd in the league. And partly as a
result, Dak Prescott’s completion percentage on third downs has regressed to
58.9% and his passer rating on third downs is a subterranean 77.1. All of which
results in an offense that ranks just 19th with 1.93 points per drive. Perhaps
the coaching change at O-line will improve an O-line that has allowed 23 sacks
(ranked 24th). Perhaps the addition of Amari Cooper will improve a receiving
corps that has accumulated just 595 yards after catch (ranked 31st).Perhaps Dak
Prescott will continue to play as efficiently as he has in the last four games
(96.5 passer rating) after his bumbling start to the season (74.5 passer rating
in first three games).Perhaps the Cowboys will trade for a TE. Perhaps the
coaching staff has used the bye week to fill the blank pages in the big play
section of the playbook with “cool” plays the players can actually execute
effectively.Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.In the end, the Cowboys of the first seven
weeks weren’t able to convert enough plays with 11+ yards to go. Their current
1st-down percentage of 8.7% pales against the 17.2% they achieved in 2016.
Penalties are not derailing the 2018 offense. But the failure to execute their
offensive scheme is. Fix that and things could be looking up again. The Dallas
Cowboys have themselves a number one receiver. After agreeing to give a 2019
first-round draft pick to the Oakland Raiders, fourth-year pass catcher Amari
Cooper is coming to Dallas. The former Alabama star was fast out of the gate,
eclipsing the 1,000 yards mark in each of his first two seasons. He’s going to
give this team a much needed boost at the wide receiver position after the
current receiving group experiment has been rather underwhelming. Cooper is a
talented player at a position of need for the Cowboys so it’s a perfect fit.
Welcome to Dallas, no. 89.89? Wait, Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin actually
wears 89. Is it possible Cooper will offer Jarwin some type of monetary
compensation so he can keep his original number? That’s a pretty common
occurrence whenever a star player joins another team where another player
already has that number. Or maybe Cooper will opt to make a change and go with
something else? Allen Hurns wore 88 while in Jacksonville
https://www.dallascowboysfanshop.com/Rod-Smith-Jersey , but chose the number 17 when he came to Dallas. After the release of Dez Bryant,
the number 88 was available, but Hurns chose his new number as a tribute to
others and stuck with it.Typically, the number 88 is sacred. Only special wide
receivers don that number in Dallas. That’s not a hard rule or anything, but
it’s sorta an unwritten understanding. Super Bowl champion Drew Pearson wore it.
Three-time Super Bowl Champ and Hall of Famer Michael Irvin wore it. And of
course, the Cowboys all-time leader in touchdown catches, Dez Bryant, also wore
it. Like I said, it’s reserved for special players.But is Amari Cooper a special
player? He was taken fourth overall in the 2015 NFL Draft so he was thought to
be pretty special a few years ago. When Michael Irvin was taken 11th overall in
the 1988 Draft, expectations were high for the Miami star receiver. The same can
be said for Dez Bryant when the Cowboys moved up to pick 24 to select him in
2010. But aren’t expectations pretty high for Cooper as well? Dallas gave up
some hefty draft capital to acquire Cooper. And when you take into account how
well the Cowboys have been drafting in the first round, that’s a testament to
how much they covet a talent like Cooper.Cooper is a great separator and the
team is doing everything they can to put the right pieces around their young
quarterback so he can be successful. A player like Cooper is a big piece.All it
takes is talent and hope to justify wearing one of the sacred numbers in Dallas.
Randy Gregory is wearing no. 94, which has been worn by Hall of Fame defensive
end Charles Haley and soon-to-be Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware.Cooper has the
talent and he brings this Cowboys team hope. It wasn’t that long ago when the
trio of Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant made up their new “triplets”
that were supposed to lead this team to the Super Bowl. Well, that never
happened. The “triplets” have since been remodeled and now consist of Dak
Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper. All three of them were Pro Bowlers
in 2016. And they are 25, 23, and 24 years old respectively. The youth movement
is a live and well in Dallas and now they have a fresh new receiver to go along
with these other offensive playmakers.
