Nothing’s been going particularly well andeven games that end with a close score don’t
feel all that close when they happen. That was the case with the 20-13 loss to
Washington on Sunday.While neither team played great
B.J. Hill Jerseys Stitched , Washington had the game in hand for the majority of the game, at least according to win probability.These are some of the most important
plays of the game by Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added
(EPA), per data provided by nflscrapR. Explainers here (WPA) and here (EPA).Both
WPA and EPA presented from the perspective of the offense.Going deep to Beckham
- 1:19 remaining, first quarterEPA: 5.35 | WPA: 16.6 percentAt the end of the
first quarter, the Giants were already down 7-0 and the offense wasn’t doing
much. It took a 3rd and 17 deep in their own territory for the Giants to throw
their first deep pass to Odell Beckham Jr. Even though it took a bad situation
to get there, the play worked out. Eli Manning was able to step up in the pocket
and fire a pass to Beckham down the left sideline, who was covered one-on-one by
rookie Greg Stroman. Beckham drew pass interference and was taken to the ground,
but still made the catch for a gain of 44 yards. The pass was followed by a
Saquon Barkley run for no gain, a sack on second down, and a 4-yard pass to
Barkley on third-and-15. The Giants did not have a bigger win probability swing
or expected points gain on offense for the remainder of the game.A bad read
intercepted - 6:40 remaining, second quarterEPA: minus-3.79 | WPA: minus-12.3
percentThere was a threat of a score in the middle of the second quarter. The
Giants faced a second-and 11 from the Washington 12-yard line. They had a trips
look to the left with Barkley also offset to that side. Manning faked a handoff
to Barkley and fired to Beckham, who ran a quick dig route from the middle of
the three-man side. The problem was safety D.J. Swearinger, who looked like he
was going to be in man coverage on Evan Engram, did not drop back and instead
made an easy play on the ball for an interception.Manning was locked on Beckham
through the play-fake and even had the chance to see Swearinger break back to
Beckham before the ball was released. When the safety stayed with Beckham, there
was a brief opening to hit Evan Engram in the end zone, but Beckham was the only
read. Also, if you’re wondering why the Giants struggle in the end zone — aside
for the interception — a 3-yard dig on second-and-11 tells some of that
story.One sack of many - 12:41 remaining, third quarterEPA: minus-2.63 | WPA:
minus-9.2 percentManning was under consistent pressure throughout the game. Per
Next Gen Stats, he averaged 2.52 seconds to throw, third-lowest among
quarterbacks in Week 8. That led to seven sacks — however, the fastest
Washington sack was only 3.3 seconds after the snap, so it’s not as if those
sacks were coming impossibly fast, like
White Eli Manning Jerseys , say, some of J.J. Watt’s in the Houston game. But still, there was a lot of pressure and the biggest sack from a win probability
standpoint came at the start of the third quarter.The Giants had a third-and-5
from the Washington 48. Preston Smith (94) blew past Nate Solder, almost caused
a strip-sack, and forced Manning to step up in the pocket. Linebacker Josh
Harvey-Clemons (40) came on a blitz and while Saquon Barkley and Will Hernandez
got him to the ground, Harvey-Clemons was able to reach out and take Manning
down when he stepped away from Smith.What really made the sack so big wasn’t
just a bad third down play, it was the loss of yards at midfield and the
potential for fourth down. Even if the Giants had gained no yards, a
fourth-and-5 from around midfield warrants a shot at going for it. But with the
loss of 7 yards, the Giants were not going to try to convert a
fourth-and-12.Richardson levels up - 11:02 remaining, third quarterEPA: 3.69 |
WPA: 13.3 percentOn the following drive, Washington faced a third-and-6 from its
own 19. With a stop, the Giants could have forced a punt with good field
position. It did not go that way. Washington created separation out of a trips
bunch to the right and Paul Richardson was wide open for a 25-yard gain. It was
a well-schemed levels concept, which runs a similar route to different levels of
the defense.Richardson (the inside man in the bunch) and Josh Doctson (the
middle) both ran corner routes with Doctson going deep and Richardson going
intermediate. Cornerback Grant Haley followed Doctson deep, which left a big
hole for Richardson behind linebacker Tae Davis. Another long field goal - 4:56
remaining, third quarterEPA: 2.12 | WPA: 7.9 percentWashington put the margin up
to a touchdown with just under five minutes remaining in the third quarter.
Dustin Hopkins kicked a 53-yard field goal to put Washington up 10-3, which at
that time felt insurmountable given how the Giants’ offense had been playing. It
was the fifth field goal of 50 or more yards hit against the Giants this season,
which ties the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins for most in the
league.Collins knocks it out - 0:55 remaining, third quarterEPA: minus-8,21 |
WPA: minus-22.6 percentIn the closing minute of the third quarter, the Giants
got a gift in the form of a turnover. Washington was in scoring range with a
first-and-10 on the Giants’ 17. Adrian Peterson took a handoff and was
immediately met by Olivier Vernon, but Peterson was able to spin away. But
Landon Collins charged downhill and knocked the ball out of Peterson’s hands.
Vernon picked the ball up and ran 43 yards before being caught by Alex Smith.By
WPA and EPA, there was no bigger play in the game. Engram comes up empty - 14:23
remaining, fourth quarterEPA: minus-3.44 | WPA: minus-8.5 percentThe next Giants
drive ended with no points on a failed fourth down attempt. On a fourth-and-3
from the Washington 32
Eli Manning Jerseys 2019 , the play worked out just as the Giants would have hoped. With Evan Engram on the outside and a stacked release with Beckham, the
tight end found a hole in the zone right at the first down marker. The pass went
right through Engram’s hands and the Giants turned the ball over on downs.Deep
to Barkley, DPI - 5:12 remaining, fourth quarterEPA: 2.99 | WPA: 8.1 percentOne
of the benefits of going deep is the possibility of a pass interference penalty.
It may not be the main goal, but it gets the job done. Joe Flacco has gotten
through the past couple seasons on the underthrown deep ball DPI.The Giants’
longest play of the game on offense turned out to be a DPI call on a deep pass
to ??checks notes ??Saquon Barkley? On a first-and-10 from the Giants 14, the
offense came out in an empty look with Barkley out wide to the right. Barkley
ran a go route and after some maneuvering in the pocket, Manning ripped a deep
attempt down the field. The pass was a little short, but safety Montae Nicholson
(35) was in no position to make a play on the ball and interfered with Barkley.
It was a 46-yard penalty and got the Giants out from deep in their own
territory.Barkley’s average air yards per target was still just 1.6 in this
game, but outside of this deep attempt he had targets that came eight and nine
yards past the line of scrimmage.Get the ball to Beckham - 4:59 remaining,
fourth quarterEPA: 2.44 | WPA: 9.5 percentThroughout the season, the Giants have
struggled with the balance of getting Odell Beckham the ball with room to run
after the catch and getting Beckham the ball down the field. Sometimes both can
be attained. On the same drive as the Barkley DPI, the Giants had a
second-and-10 from Washington 40. Beckham ran a route that broke in at the first
down marker and put him in a hole in Washington’s zone coverage. Manning threw
the pass past the sticks — a rarity for him in this game, per Next Gen Stats his
average pass was 2.8 yards behind the sticks — and Beckham was able to take it
21 yards after the catch for a gain of 32 down to the Washington 8.The Giants
got down to the 4 and peaked with a 28.2 percent chance to win thanks to another
pass interference penalty, but a one-yard run from Barkley and incomplete passes
to Barkley and Bennie Fowler brought up fourth down. Instead of going for a
touchdown to bring the score within a field goal, the Giants kicked a field goal
from the 3 to go down seven.Peterson clinches it - 3:16 remaining, fourth
quarterEPA: 5.94 | WPA: 7.8 percentWashington basically clinched the game on the
next drive with a 64-yard touchdown run from Adrian Peterson. The play was
perfectly designed and executed. Both center Chase Roullier (73) and right guard
Brandon Scherrf (75) pulled to take out Tae Davis and Landon Collins. Those
blocks and a big hole gave Peterson just Curtis Riley to beat in route to the
end zone. He scored.The Giants did drive for a touchdown on the next drive, but
it took 13 plays and just under three minutes and the team still trailed by a
touchdown after the score. When the Giants started that drive, they had just a
2.4 percent chance of winning the game. Inquiring minds want to know if the
Giants have a direction"So, what’s the plan, Dave?That’s the question everyone
has continued to ask ever since the bombshell news on Tuesday evening that the
New York Giants are trading superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the
Cleveland Browns.Does Giants GM Dave Gettleman have a plan?During last night’s
podcast with Patricia Traina I couldn’t help myself. I referred to Gettleman as
“Crazy Dave” and said we all just have to hop on the train and go for the ride.
To be clear, I’m not criticizing Gettleman by saying that. All I’m saying is
whether he ends up being right or wrong, he’s shown the conviction to do this
his way — which means doing some things other people wouldn’t do.This is a
rebuild Gettleman hates that word. He likes to say the Giants are just “moving
forward.” But, yes
White Odell Beckham Jerseys , they are rebuilding. Out with the old — lots of it talented and popular. In with the new. Much of which is unknown, perhaps even
to Gettleman.Face it, this was overdue.The Giants have been awful for most of
the last seven seasons. Missed the playoffs six times. Lost — badly — in their
only playoff game. You can have allegiance to any of the players the Giants have
let go since Gettleman arrived, but the truth is the Giants weren’t good with
any of them.So, they are starting over. Gettleman has 12 picks in this draft,
including Nos. 6 and 17 in Round 1. He has likely collected a couple of
compensatory picks for the 2020 draft already, unless he signs players who will
cancel them out. On a projected $200 million 2020 salary cap, Over The Cap
currently estimates the Giants with more than $103 million to spend next
offseason.So, whatever you want to call it the Giants are playing the long
game.What does this mean for Eli Manning?It isn’t exactly breaking new ground to
discuss the idea of how the Giants can rebuild with a 38-year-old quarterback.
Everyone is doing it. So, let’s address it.Honestly, with no inside information
to corroborate what I’m thinking here, I’m not sure the Giants are moving into
2019 with Manning behind center.March 17.That is really the next key date in
determining what, exactly, Gettleman and the Giants are doing. That is the day
the Giants are due to pay Manning a $5 million 2019 roster bonus. Until Tuesday
night, I was certain they were going to do that.I was certain they would move
forward with Manning for one more year, whether they were able to land an heir
apparent this year and implement their “Kansas City model” for a quarterback
transition or not.Now? I’m not so sure.Maybe the Giants just save the $5
million, cut the cord and accelerate the inevitable. That might do doing
Manning, and themselves, a favor.What is the quarterback replacement plan?That
is still murky. With the sixth and 17th picks in the first round, though, the
likelihood quarterback could be in play in Round 1 has to have increased. The
Giants could use those picks to maneuver, or could sit tight and see if a
quarterback they like (Dwayne Haskins? Drew Lock? Daniel Jones?) is on the board
in one of those spots.Or ...I had this thought Tuesday night. What if the play
for the Giants is Josh Rosen? If the Cardinals want Kyler Murray they have to
trade Rosen. I keep hearing that the expected price tag for Rosen is the value
of a second-round pick. What if the Giants use their 6th and 17th picks to bulk
up the roster, and deal the 37th pick to the Arizona Cardinals for Rosen?You get
two first-round picks AND a quarterback of the future. Maybe you can even live
with sending Arizona the 17th overall pick and keeping Nos. 6 and 37.Makes sense
to me. There are
Odell Beckham Jerseys 2019 , though, two catches. We don’t know if Arizona will make Rosen available, and we really have no idea if Rosen is the guy the Giants
want to turn their franchise over to.Or ...Wait until 2020. I have said multiple
times that it really doesn’t matter whether the Giants get their quarterback of
the future this year or next. What matters is that they get the right guy. If
they don’t think Haskins, Lock, Jones or Rosen is the right guy then just
continue to build the roster, continue stockpiling picks and make your big move
next year.Nothing wrong with that.Replacing Odell You don’t replace Odell
Beckham’s talent. Not easily. Few have ever possessed the kind of ability
Beckham has displayed. Someone, though, has to play wide receiver for the Giants
in 2019.The Giants have Sterling Shepard (66 catches in 2018) and Corey Coleman
(5 catches). After that? Your guess is as good as mine.My guess is the Giants
will use some combination of lower-tier free agents and middle- to late-round
draft picks to stock this position. Maybe Cody Latimer returns. Maybe a
youngster like Jawill Davis gets an opportunity. We could see Evan Engram split
wide more often.Dan Pizzuta should be along later today with some specific names
to consider. No matter who it is, though, the Giants aren’t easily replacing
what Beckham can do.Free agency begins today Oh, you thought that was already
over? The 2019 NFL league season, and thus the free agency signing period,
actually begins at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. That means the Beckham-Browns deal
will become official. Landon Collins will officially be a member of the
Washington Redskins. Antoine Bethea will officially be a Giant. So, too, will
Jabrill Peppers — the “other guy” in the Beckham trade.Will Gettleman and the
Giants do anything else of significance in free agency? Spotrac estimates that
the Giants are roughly $27.47 million under the cap. The two players I have been
told are the Giants’ biggest targets — right tackle Daryl Williams and edge
defender Markus Golden — remain on the market. Will the Giants continue to
pursue them, likely at high costs? Or, in the wake of the Beckham trade, will
they decide to try and horde some cash reserves for a future free agency
splurge?
