The Jets will have a decision to make in a little under a week.

They will have to decide whether they want to keep the third overall pick
or trade down to stockpile more selections. Many factors..."WhiteFanposts
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About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub ?How frequently is a top three pick
one of the three best pros from his Draft class?New White Chris Herndon Jerseys ,20commentsEDTShareTweetShareShareHow frequently is a top three pick one of the three best pros from his Draft class?The Jets will
have a decision to make in a little under a week. They will have to decide
whether they want to keep the third overall pick or trade down to stockpile more
selections. Many factors will determine what their ultimate decision, most
importantly what they are offered for the pick. To make a good decision, the
team will have to understand the true value of the third pick.Throughout Draft
season I have encountered a mindset in the Jets fanbase that I believe is
mistaken. There seems to be a widely held perception that staying with the third
overall pick virtually guarantees the Jets a superstar player, while trading
down makes that substantially less likely. With that in mind, I decided to do a
little research to see how often the top three players selected in a Draft
actually turn out to be one of the three best pros from that class.I took a look
at 15 Drafts from 2000 through 2014. Classes selected in 2015 or later have not
yet completed their rookie contracts (four years plus one year team option) so I
felt it was too early in their careers to judge.Pro Football Reference has a
tool called Approximate Value (AV) that offers a ballpark figure of a player’s
value. It isn’t a totally perfect way to rank players, but it does a good job
offering a big picture view of how players rate against each other (hence the
word approximate...so spare me your minor quibbles about whether one player here
or there belongs on the list).In these 15 years I found the three players in
each class who produced the highest career AV and looked at where they were
selected.Here are some of the key things I found.Of the 45 players who were in
the top three best players of their Draft classes over this 15 year stretch,
only eight of them were selected in the top three. (17.8%)Expanding things a
bit, 16 of the players on the list were picked in the top ten. (35.6%)The most
common spot for a top three player in a class to be selected during this period
was the 11th overall pick. (5 players)34 of the 45 players were among the top 32
selections in their Draft class. (75.6%)39 of the 45 players were selected in
the first two rounds of the Draft.(86.7%)On a fun note, the Jets signed two
players in free agency this year who ranked in the top three of players in their
respective Draft class. (Le’Veon Bell and C.J.
Mosley)......................................I think this actually says some
pretty good things about the evaluation skills of NFL teams. From this elite
club, three quarters went in the top 32 picks and over 85% went in the first two
rounds. Teams aren’t repeatedly passing on the elite talent.It also does show
that your odds of finding the best players in a Draft class are higher when you
are picking at the top.The fact 17.8% of the top three players in a class went
in the top three overall picks is again fairly impressive in context. The top
three picks represent just over 1% of the entire Draft class each year and yet
18% of the club is comprised of these players.With that said, we see that owning
a top three pick hardly guarantees one of the top three players in a Draft
class. In fact, the odds are very much against landing one even when picking in
the top three.And the odds of landing an elite player don’t become substantially
more dire when dropping out of the top three. There are five times as players in
this club who were picked 11th overall than there are players who were picked
3rd overall.My conclusions are similar to those I have drawn in similar
examinations of the Draft.The odds of hitting in the top three seem
substantially lower than the general perception.While the odds of success do get
lower from trading down, the degree by which the odds fall is not as great as
many make it out to be.Trading down always has a cost Chris Herndon Jerseys 2019 , but as was the case with some of our other looks at the Draft, it seems that cost might not be as great as conventional wisdom
suggests. This must be weighed against the benefits from acquiring additional
picks.*Players in the top three of AV from their respective Draft classes used
for the purposes of this article:2000: Tom Brady, Brian Urlacher, Shaun
Ellis2001: Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Reggie Wayne2002: Julius Peppers, Ed
Reed, Dwight Freeney2003: Terrell Suggs, Carson Palmer, Kevin Williams2004:
Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning2005: Aaron Rodgers, Logan
Mankins White Trenton Cannon Jerseys , DeMarcus Ware2006: Jahri Evans, Haloti Ngata, Andrew Whitworth2007: Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis2008: Matt
Ryan, Calais Campbell, Joe Flacco2009: Matthew Stafford, Clay Matthews, LeSean
McCoy2010: Antonio Brown, Ndamukong Suh, Geno Atkins2011: Cam Newton, JJ Watt,
Von Miller2012: Russell Wilson Trenton Cannon Jerseys 2019 , Bobby Wagner, Luke Kuechly2013: David Bakhtiari, Le’Veon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins2014: Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, C.J. MosleyJets
training camp news and live updates 8/6 Jets training camp continues this
afternoon in Florham Park. With the Green and White Practice in the rear view
mirror, we are now just a few days away from the preseason opener against the
Atlanta Falcons. That is when most of the position battles will begin to come
into focus. In the meantime, we will continue to monitor the progress of Sam
Darnold. Although the rookie quarterback missed the start of camp due to a
contract dispute, he has come on strong over the last few practices and is
showing signs he might be ready to nab the starting job. Can he continue his
recent success and carry the momentum into the start of the preseason?The GGN
Twitter widget is embedded below for your viewing pleasure. You can follow the
developments from Jets camp as it refreshes automatically to provide you with
live updates from practice and the press conferences that follow.Tweets from
https://twitter.com/GangGreenNation/lists/the-great-american-widget