Did the Coronavirus Originate Outside of Wuhan?

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freemexy

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There's no doubt that the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the highly contagious disease that's so far infected more than 4.2 million
people globally and killed nearly 290,000, originated in China.To get
more news about coronavirus china wuhan, you can visit shine news official website.

But while early analyses of the outbreak indicated that it first emerged in humans in the city of Wuhan — which became the epicenter of
China's epidemic — possibly at a seafood market, that scenario hasn't
been fully confirmed by researchers.


Now a University of Cambridge geneticist says there is strong circumstantial evidence that the virus didn't originate in Wuhan after
all.This idea that the Wuhan seafood market is the origin is actually
not clear-cut," says Peter Forster, a fellow in archaeological research
at Cambridge.


If Forster's research holds up, it would also put to rest a dubious claim made by U.S. President Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, the secretary
of state, that the pathogen leaked from the Wuhan Institute of
Virology, a government lab. Neither Trump nor Pompeo has offered
evidence to back up that assertion, and the intelligence agencies of
America's closest allies have debunked it.


Forster is a co-inventor of phylogenetic algorithms that have, since the 1990s, become the standard software for mining genetic data to
reconstruct human evolutionary trees, or networks. His team applied the
software to 44 genome samples of the coronavirus gleaned from the
earliest official reported cases in China from Dec. 24 of last year to
Jan. 17.In a recent paper published in the journal Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, Forster reported he found three main
strains of the virus that he labeled A, B and C.


His research determined that A was the founding variant because it was the version most similar to the type of SARS-Cov-2 (the scientific
name for the virus) discovered in bats. Many experts suspect that the
virus migrated to humans from bats, probably via some other animal. But
he also discovered that the A strain wasn't the predominant type in
Wuhan.


Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of
China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For
instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of
Wuhan, five were A types.I would be a bit careful about pinpointing a
place (of origin), because we don't have many samples from the early
phase," he says. "But it seems to me we shouldn't restrict ourselves to
Wuhan when looking for the origin."


Asked if his ongoing research should quash speculation that the virus leaked from the Wuhan lab, Forster is circumspect. "It's not black
and white. All I can say is it doesn't look to me as if Wuhan is the
prime candidate, because A exists in other regions of China at that time
at possibly a higher frequency."


The B type has since become the predominant version. The A type has largely petered out, as has the third variant, C, which mainly took hold
in Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and in scattered areas around
Europe.


Forster's research also indicates that COVID-19 may have been circulating among humans and animals before the reported first case in
China on Dec. 1. The mutation rate he used indicates that there is a 95%
chance that the original successful spread of the virus may have
commenced as far back as Sept. 13, 2019.


However, he adds, that assumes "that the mutation rate is constant and that I can simply use it as a clock to go back in time." Since then,
however, he's now analyzed 1,001 virus genomes, and has determined that
while the mutation rate in East Asia is around 1.5 per month, outside
that region it's closer to 2 or 2.1 per month.


"It's clear that the virus can change its mutation rate," Forster explains. "And if that has happened now, it might also have happened in
the past, and in that case we can't be sure whether my estimate is
accurate. But I would say it's the best we can do at the moment."


The B type's rapid mutation rate also doesn't look like neutral evolution, he says, and it may be affected by some form of natural
selection in response to environmental influences. "The virus seems to
have accelerated outside East Asia, and this is in keeping with the odd
appearance of the B type."


That finding also seems to be in line with research last week out of the Los Alamos National Laboratory that found that the current dominant
strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than other
strains.


Ian Lipkin, a virologist at Columbia University, is working with Chinese researchers to investigate hospital samples in China to see if
there is more evidence that the outbreak occurred elsewhere in China
before it was picked up in Wuhan. "He is conducting the kind of work my
research is pointing at," Forster says.


Determining the exact origins of a lethal virus is an important step in trying to stop future outbreaks of similar pathogens, which is why
Lipkin and virologists -- some guided by roadmaps like Forster's genetic
family trees -- are making a concerted effort to pinpoint COVID-19's
origins. And chances are good that they'll eventually solve the mystery.

Posted 15 May 2020

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Posted 04 Nov 2020

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