I have traded gold for 30 years and know that there are many basic
factors that can affect the trend of gold, as well as major ones
including against the USD, trend of the USD, geopolitics and
anti-inflation. Now the weak US dollar, geopolitical tension and easing
monetary policy by global banks all contributes to further currency
depreciation. Although the strong US stock decreases risk aversion, gold
price will rally steadily and repeatedly due to the well support by
other favorable factors.
It is remarkably that a sudden slump in global stock markets is
profitable for gold price with an increasing risk aversion. Recalling
the sharply drop in stock market in March, both gold and stock slumped
by over US$250. As the stocks fall led to the liquidity squeeze of US
dollar and further to sharp rise of US dollar index, causing the
simultaneous sharp drop of both a group of non US dollar currencies and
gold. Therefore, if the global markets collapse, do not easily believe
that it is good for the gold price 100 percent.
Recently, according to a data released by the US, its inflation
increase recorded a 8-year high, caused by the sharp recovery of oil
price. If the inflation in the US becomes worse, the Fed still needs to
simulate economy by maintaining lower interest rate, which is expected
to support well the price of gold, as an anti-inflation hedge. In a
short term, supported by the profitable factor above, the spot gold
price is likely to test above the level of 1,840-1,850 USD, and then to
approach the major level of 1,900 USD after giving back gains with a
stable fluctuation.
