Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new leader to succeed the resigned Shinzo Abe as the next Prime Minister on September
14. This election, therefore, will be determined by the LDP factions
rather than the country's public opinion. While Chief Cabinet Secretary
Yoshihide Suga has taken a lead in the LDP's leadership race, he
stressed to carry “Abenomics” forward with no novelty in his political
platform.To get more news about
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In fact, the mess in the country's economy cannot be cleared up
whatever Suga's politics are. Not only is Japan's economy the worst
among the major industrial nations, but the government's debt-to-GDP
ratio is the world's largest, which is even more than Greece and Italy
that are known to be in debt crisis.
Consequently, I hold a gloomy view that the Japanese equities may be
too high to keep the upside as Suga is not capable to guide the country
out of its slump. The Nikkei 225 index has regained 7,142 points
(43.60%) to 23,500 from a March low of 16,358 and is approaching to the
triple top that was formed earlier, with the largest resistance lying in
the 24,448.5 of September 2018, which is also the high level of October
1991. This index is expected to retreat after seeing little chance of
breaking through the triple top.
A decline in Japanese stocks will trigger the unwinding of carry trade
in the currency, driving a rise in risk aversion and strengthening the
yen. At this stage, the weak U.S. dollar leaves limited space for the
yen to drop sharply, with the biggest upper resistance against the yen
between 107.04 and 108.16. On the contrary, if the Nikkei does fail to
hit the top and fall steeply in the future, USD/JPY will have a chance
to challenge the 104.19 low of July 31, where a breach below will see
the yen showing its power. In addition to the election of the LDP's
leader, investors should also pay attention to the central bank's
interest rate meeting on September 17, noticing whether the monetary
policy will change after the new Prime Minister takes office.
