I spent the past weekend at the 2014 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston.
Ken Dryden Canadiens Jersey . It was my fifth straight year attending and, as always, there are many interesting matters
discussed as it pertains to the use of statistics in sports. While analytics if
the focus of the conference, there are always some discussions that are more
wide-ranging in nature, so Ill try to cover as much as I can, with this write-up
providing a more general overview of the conference before I post the second
part, which will focus more specifically on the hockey content. NBA COMMISSIONER
ADAM SILVER NBA Commissioner Adam Silver was impressive in a one-on-one
interview with Malcolm Gladwell. Gladwell grilled Silver and, for the most part,
he was forthcoming with his responses. Now, when Gladwell hammered away at the
greed of some NBA owners, foremost among his concerns was the Dolans in New
York, getting tax breaks as they arent required to pay property taxes on Madison
Squate Garden, one of the most valuable pieces of land in Manhattan. For as much
grief as Gladwell takes in some quarters for the pop science in his books, he
was a great choice to interview Silver because he wasnt afraid to ask the
commish difficult questions, yet did so, with follow-up queries, without the
interview getting uncomfortable or contentious. Some of that goes to Silver, who
was forthcoming in his responses or, when defending the tax positions of
billionaire owners, was clearly speaking from the commissioner playbook. There
are times its transparently difficult to defend the indefensible. BASKETBALL
ANALYTICS Silver talked about the removing disincentive for teams to win and
this was a big topic at the conference. It speaks to the situation in which the
NBA finds itself this year, with a handful of teams competing for the title and
perhaps twice as many aiming for a top lottery pick. Houston Rockets GM, and
Conference Co-Chair, Daryl Morey plainly stated that the NBA has to find a way
to eliminate tanking incentive. New Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive joked
with Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, on a panel about Ownership Perspective,
that Silver said the Celtics were tanking, to which Grousbeck quickly replied,
"And what you are you doing?" The Kings are currently 23rd in the NBA standings,
the Celtics 27th. Former Toronto Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo even caused a stir
when he admitted to tanking. "I tried to tank a couple of years ago," he said on
the In-Game Innovations panel. "It didnt work." Colangelo made it clear that he
never told player or coaches not to do their best to win but, as anyone seeing
how teams are constructed would understand, management can put together a roster
that is less likely to win games. Former coach Stan Van Gundy is not a fan of
the tanking. He ripped the Philadelphia 76ers, with Sixers GM Sam Hinkie in the
audience, saying, "What the 76ers are doing is embarrassing. Cant put out that
lineup and think they can win." Boston Celtics Assistant GM Mike Zarren, a
panelist every year at the conference, has proposed a wheel format that would
replace the current draft and its a fascinating theory, definitely one that
would remove the incentive for tanking, but there are practical issues at play
too. Silver loved the idea initially, but acknowledged that there will be some
hurdles to overcome if that kind of solution is going to happen in reality.
Silver also mentioned how NBA players have approached the league about a
mid-season break for all, noting how All-Stars dont get a break and the grind of
the season can be taxing on the leagues best players, logging more than 30
minutes a night, night after night. This was particularly interesting, given all
the recent complaints in NHL circles about the Olympic break. The most shocking
admission from Silver was that he acknowledged how gambling and point spreads
increase interest in games that might otherwise be mismatches. This is no secret
to the world at large, but the nature of all league commissioners has been to
dismiss out of hand the benefits that the league might receive from gambling.
When discussing how much teams ought to be spending on analytics, Colangelo put
the range between $250,000 and $500,000 per year. When you consider the size of
contracts in professional sports, its not unreasonable to think that an
analytics department could lead to decisions that would save at least that much.
One of the great developments in terms of NBA statistics is the emergence of
SportVu data. Among the countless things tracked by the SportVu cameras, they
can track how far a player has run -- Trail Blazers SF Nicolas Batum is up to
nearly 160 miles for the season -- and Grantlands Zach Lowe, moderating the
Basketball Analytics panel, wonders if that kind of data will really prove to
have value in terms of injury prevention. The detail of this tracking data is so
new that its difficult to know, but its easy enough to see how, someday, knowing
the specifics as it relates to a players workload could result is more efficient
usage in order to reduce the chances of injury. To counter, Van Gundy vehemently
disagreed with playing time limits because he felt it was a lot of guesswork and
cited the Washington Nationals decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg in 2012
as a random determination. "How did they come up with 160 innings," asked Van
Gundy. "Why not 170?" Van Gundy insisted that professional sports come with a
risk of injury and that not playing obviously reduces that risk, but only
because no one will get hurt when they arent actually participating. As the
old-school NBA guy, Van Gundy also insisted that there is no substitute for
watching film, and that the only numbers he trusts are ones that his own people
keep. The trouble with this approach, of course, is that if the only statistics
that matter are kept by internal sources, then biases are more apt to creep in
than if it is a league-wide measurement. No one pointed this out to Van Gundy,
but it could also be said that the value of statistics isnt so much in learning
more about your own team. It can certainly help, but helping to provide value
and context for players throughout the league is where statistics can provide
much more information. As ESPNs Director of Production Analytics Dean Oliver
noted on another panel (re: college football playoffs), "A human can see a game
better than the numbers can, but the numbers can see every game." While I use
some of Van Gundys comments to echo a point made by Steve Kerr, the former Suns
GM, who noted that getting buy-in from some coaches remains an issue, its not as
if Van Gundy is a total dinosaur and its enitrely possible that a coach views
the game differently than those tasked with building long-term. As Van Gundy
stated, "When youre coaching, youre coaching to your personnel, not to an
analytics philosophy," and theres some measure of truth in that, because theres
no point in having an analytics stategy that doesnt fit your personnel. As part
of the In-Game Innovations Panel, George Karl was quite progressive in his
thinking, but acknowledged that he had a track record that allowed him more
flexibility, contrasting with younger coaches who can get crucified (by media,
fans) for trying to be innovative. Misaligned goals is a common problem for
professional sports teams and its part of the reason that there was a panel at
Sloan this year entitled Inside the War Room: Building Alignment from Front
Office to Field. It featured Atlanta Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff and Heach Coach
Mike Smith and its an issue that is pervasive when it comes to applying
analytics to professional sports. Its one thing to have Mark Cuban as your owner
and the organization falls in line because the owner takes a clear position and
its another to have a general manager trying to keep his job and a head coach
trying to keep his job and they arent necessarily pulling in the same direction
to achieve their respective goals. Furthermore, as Boston Celtics coach Brad
Stevens noted, "We live in a day and age with so much more information," he
said. "The challenge is communicating that information to the team." Stevens
admitted that some players, like Rajon Rondo, would devour the analytics because
thats the way hes wired ("He could be here," Stevens joked.), but that other
players arent wired that way, so it falls on the coaches to try to get their
point across in a way that will appeal to players on their terms. Its not easy
to get players to buy into stats. On my flight home from Boston, I happened to
read a feature on Tom Brady during which Brady made a couple of seemingly
contradictory statements, one of which was, "I would say I perform at a much
higher level as a player now than I did when we won Super Bowls." The other was:
"Theres one stat that matters, and thats wins." When youre a player, wins are
what matter; thats the objective. What analytics will tell us, though, is that
Brady is precisely right that he is playing better now than he did when New
England was winning Super Bowls, the last of which came after the 2004 season.
That his team hasnt won the championship does not mean that Bradys individual
performance has declined, a position that is taken altogether too often when
evaluating the performance of individual players. A lot that is beyond the
control of one individual goes into whether a team wins or loses a game, let
alone a championship. As the Godfather of Analytics, Bill James offered a
measured response for coaches, particularly as it applied to in-game innovation.
James said that coaches are control freaks, but chaos can be useful, so the best
coaches learn to appreciate the chaos. This was followed by Morey telling a
story about when Jeff Van Gundy was the coach in Houston and Morey had printouts
for all the plays that the Rockets would run, with measures for efficiency and
Morey didnt recognize the code for the most effective play, so he asked Van
Gundy. "Thats Random," said the coach, "when the (called) play breaks down."
Sometimes all the analysis and planning goes out the window and you just have to
let the players play. BASEBALL ANALYTICS Stepping aside from the NBA for a bit,
it comes as no surprise that baseball would be well-represented at a sports
analytics conference. After all, baseball brought us the aformentioned Mrl James
and Moneyball -- the kind of objective analysis that is at the core of modern
analytics. The baseball panel, which was likely the best panel of the conference
-- at least the best I saw, using my Panel Analytics -- was moderated by MLB
Networks Brian Kenny and that set the right tone. Kenny favours an analytical
approach and the panel included Vince Gennaro, Bill Squadron, Rob Neyer, Nate
Silver (of 538 fame) and Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. To no ones surprise, a
panel full of analytics-oriented people had an interesting conversation about
advances in analytics. Even at a point when Kenny ventured towards the idea
about whether there would be a way to actually measure chemistry, he did so with
some obvious skepticism and I was in full agreement with Neyers point that there
are plenty of teams with great chemistry that dont win and teams with horrible
chemistry -- citing the Oakland As and New York Yankees of the 1970s -- that won
a lot. My take is that chemistry is the kind of thing that gets awarded to
winners after the fact. Sure, the Red Sox won the World Series because they had
great clubhouse chemistry, but would that chemistry have been any different if
they didnt win? Luhnow later said, "There is no correlation between being a nice
guy or a good person and being a good baseball player." The character issue is a
tricky one when it comes to sports. No one wants to work with someone that is a
pain in the butt, but if that person can help you win, sometimes the decision
isnt so easy. Neyer also noted how economics havent quite caught up with
analytics. "Does anyone get paid for pitch-framing," he asked, addressing one of
the hottest evolutions in defensive data -- the catcher who saves his team by
drawing more called strikes. Neyer asked if anyone was paying for Jose Molina
saving a team 20 runs with pitch framing and while the flat answer is no, there
are some players that have major league jobs because they are adept at pitch
framing. Of course, their value will be eliminated once the robot umpires take
over but, in the mean time, its an area in which players can gain an edge. One
of the ongoing memes between those in analytics and old-school people is the
idea that the spreadsheet nerds need to watch the games. Of course, no one has
ever suggested teams not watch games; the real value comes in using new data and
applying it while watching games. For example, Luhnow said that the Astros
incorporate information from their scouts in their "best in class" projection
system. He also said that the Astros have five analysts with advanced degrees
and they have all spent a lot of time in the clubhouse. Baseball isnt merely
about analytics for teams, though since, with all teams using them, there are
fewer advantages available; they also use them to increase fan interest.
Squadron noted that predictive analytics can increase fan engagement, including
for use in fantasy sports. Taking a page from Adam Silver, Ill also acknowledge
that predictive analytics increase the engagement of the gambling audience too.
One of the pieces of new technology that MLB Digital Media showcased, was this
tracking technology that would provide data on the routes run by fielders to get
to batted balls, designating a straight line as 100% efficient and comparing a
fielders actual route taken. With more information, there will be better ways to
evaluate fielders and provide a more comprehensive value to players overall.
There is so much potential with the player tracking data in the sports that are
willing to use it. MORE CONFERENCE NOTES New England Patriots President Jonathan
Kraft: "Statistical analysis in football primarily takes place in the
offseason." Kraft also told a 2000 Draft Day story about how, in the fifth
round, Bill Belichick was holding Tom Bradys name card and asking how the
Patriots could pass him over, saying he provided too much value, but the
Patriots had Drew Bledsoe, didnt need a quarterback, so they used their two
fifth-round picks that year on TE Dave Stachelski (one catch for five yards in
his career) and DT Jeff Marriott, who never played in the NFL, before relenting
and letting Belichick have his guy in the sixth round. Both Kraft and Calgary
Flames President Brian Burke (more on him in the hockey edition) talked about
how important it was, in capped leagues, to get useful contributions from
players on entry-level contracts. Former Bulls and Lakers Coach Phil Jackson:
"(Rodman) had an engine that never stopped...but it took him to the bars after
too." Jackson also said that the Bulls had to change the guards on Michael
Jordan every practice, to build them back up, and cited Warriors PG Steph Curry
as a current player that would thrive in his Triangle Offence. Dean Oliver,
ESPNs Director of Production Analytics: "We dont under-estimate the intelligence
of the sports fan." Some might argue the World Wide Leaders programming
decisions, particularly with respect to this statement, but having a department
of Production Analytics shows the kind of effort being made behind the scenes to
get accurate and reliable information to the fan. Oliver was speaking on a Big
Data panel with tennis great Mary-Jo Fernandez, who was emphatic in her desire
to use data to provide better analysis for tennis viewers. Fernandez showed some
interesting plot data on serves by Serena Williams and how when its compared to
others, that Serenas dominance on the serve (and how she achieves it) can be
presented in an easy-to-understand visual format. They also use heat maps
showing where a player spends most of their time in the match. In the example
Fernandez cited, Serena barely left the baseline the whole match. John
Hollinger, who was hired away from ESPN, by the Memphis Grizzlies as their VP of
Basketball Operations: "The most important part of basketball analytics is
salary cap optimization." This goes back to the point about how much teams ought
to be spending on analytics. In a capped league, especially, saving money on the
cap affects future moves and what possibilities are open to teams. To think that
analytics cant help that process is beyond my comprehension. Falcons GM Thomas
Dimitroff echoed Hollingers sentiments, saying that you cant separate economics
from analytics in sports. During a golf presentation, there was a an interesting
measure of strokes gained and lost, per shot. Presented, in part, by swing coach
Sean Foley, the data showed strokes gained and lost for every shot (eg. +0.3
strokes on the tee shot, +0.1 on approach, -0.2 first putt etc.) and it revealed
that its the long game that makes the bigger difference on tour. Foley also used
the data to help build up Justin Rose, who was beating himself up over what he
thought was a struggling approach game, only to have Foley show him the stats
that said Rose was gaining more strokes on his approach than anyone on tour at
the time. On this years sports betting panel, moderator Jeff Ma expressed his
doubts that The Sports Boss, panelist Patrick Donovan, was using a seriously
analytical approach when he started talking about getting a feel for a teams
emotional level. Any time youre at an analytics conference and someone heads
down the road discussing emotion, psychology etc. there are going to be a
certain number of eye rolls because no one knows how to quantify that
information. My experience has been that kind of thing gets awarded
retroactively (ie. winners are determined to have played harder, with more
emotion, etc.) Las Vegas Hotel Superbook Manager Jay Kornegay: "You guys might
be very disappointed if I told you how we came up with some of these lines."
Kornegay said that they dont use a complicated computer algorithm to determine
lines. They have a group of handicappers in-house and they come up with the line
as a group but, basically, its on feel. As Kornegay noted, "We (bookmakers) get
paid for being close." More Kornegay: The Super Bowl line is geared toward
public money while the rest of the year is against the sharps. Check back soon
for my piece on Hockey at the 2014 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference! Scott
Cullen can be reached at
[email protected] and followed on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.
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