Each year, I take a relatively simple mathematical look at each series, using shots on goal and goaltender save percentages to determine which team might be
expected to win the series.
Daniel Murphy Jersey . Since Im the first one to emphasize that overall statistics (or standings) are not necessarily
representative of the current value for a team, especially with respect to
injuries, these statistics merely provide a baseline for the series, perhaps
providing an idea what a team needs to do in order to emerge victorious. In some
cases, teams can keep on keeping on; in others, they might need better
goaltending, fewer power play against, fewer shots against, more shots for --
just something -- to provide better expected results in a seven-game series. In
last years projections, for example, the St. Louis Blues were projected to come
out ahead of the Los Angeles Kings in a close series, but the end result wasnt
that close at all, partly because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick, who had a
.902 save percentage during the regular season, had a .944 save percentage in
Round One against the Blues. This points out the obvious limitations of
forecasting a seven-game series -- its short enough that a player, particularly
a goalie, running hot for a short period of time can easily shift the outcome.
The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each
teams shots for and against over the course of the season and splitting the
difference. So, for example, Boston had 31.9 shots on goal per game and Detroit
allowed 29.3 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.6
shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders
save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins.
Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total
for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series
will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team
that scores more. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 31.9 29.1
Tuukka Rask 0.930 19.28 Detroit 30.0 29.3 Jimmy Howard 0.910 14.48 Verdict: The
Bruins are not only one of the leagues top possession teams, ranking fourth in
Fenwick Close, but they also have the odds-on favourite to win the Vezina
Trophy, Tuukka Rask. This doesnt mean there is no hope for Detroit -- the Bruins
were similarly favoured against Toronto in Round One last year and needed a
near-miracle to escape with a win in Game Seven -- but plenty will have to break
right for the Wings if they are going to get the upset. First, they need
goaltender Jimmy Howard at the top of his game. Howard has played well in his
last handful of starts, but his .910 save percentage this year marked only the
second time in five seasons that he posted a save perentage under .920 in a
season. Even if Howard can close the goaltending gap with Rask, the Red Wings
will need to get a better handle on puck possesssion, which isnt an outrageous
goal considering that most of the Wings top possession players didnt play full
seasons in Detroit, either due to time in the AHL or injury. Ultimately, though,
the Wings need a lot to break right and the Bruins need a lot to go wrong for
the first-place Bruins to end up going out early.. Team SF SA Goaltender SV%
Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 29.9 28.8 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.36 Columbus
29.6 30.8 Sergei Bobrovsky 0.923 17.37 Verdict: For much of the year, the
Pittsburgh Penguins were considered a viable Eastern Conference contender
alongside the Bruins. As injuries mounted, however, the Penguins became more and
more vulnerable and their shot differential is far from outstanding. Take
Evgeni Malkin away from that and suddenly the Penguins need breaks to go their
way and coming into the playoffs, its not easy to put a lot of faith in
goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, even though he had a fine season, because his last
four playoff appearances have resulted in a combined .880 save percentage, which
is frightening for any team, let alone one that doesnt dominate territorially.
What works in the Penguins favour is that the Blue Jackets dont fare that well
in shot differential, though their Fenwick Close is above average, and the Blue
Jackets have some injuries to deal with up front, as Nathan Horton, Nick Foligno
and R.J. Umberger are all hurt as the playoffs begin. For the Blue Jackets to
get their forecasted upset, though, they need Sergei Bobrovsky to stand tall in
net. Over the past couple seasons, Bobrovsky has been one of the best and if
that holds in the playoffs, then maybe Columbus second trip to the postseason
will be more memorable than their first. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected
GF/Series Tampa Bay 29.8 29.2 Anders Lindback 0.891 15.53 Montreal 28.4 31.0
Carey Price 0.927 21.97 Verdict: Based on the season overall, it would be
natural to favour the Tampa Bay Lightning, who overcame a lot, including the
loss of their best player for months, but going into this series with Montreal
presents such a massive difference in goaltending that its difficult to come
back to the Lightning. If Anders Lindback and Carey Price are true to this
seasons form, the series is no contest, but the Lightning can take some
encouragement from Lindbacks last three starts of the season and hope that is a
sign of things to come -- he had allowed at least three goals in eight of the
previous nine starts though, so theres reason to be skeptical. If Lindback can
give the Lightning decent goaltending, though, then they have a chance because
Tampa Bay has been the better possession team by a decent margin. The other
alternative for the Lightning would knock Carey Price off his game and that has
happened in the playoffs before. In 30 career playoff game, Price owns a .905
save percentage and hasnt played more than seven playoff games since his rookie
season of 2007-2008. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series N.Y. Rangers
33.2 29.4 Henrik Lundqvist 0.917 18.53 Philadelphia 30.4 30.6 Steve Mason 0.917
17.37 Verdict: While historically it would be easy to favour the Rangers over
the Flyers based on the relative merits of goaltenders Henrik Lundqvist and
Steve Mason, their numbers this season were very close, so the Blueshirts end up
favoured based on notably better shot differentials (and, incidentally,
possession stats). The Rangers have been a relatively strong team even without
much contribution from trade deadline addition Martin St. Louis, so that gives
them another proverbial bullet to fire, if St. Louis could get back to the form
that has seen him score 68 points in 63 career playoff games or leaves him as
the second-leading scorer over the past four seasons. If you click through on
that St. Louis link, though, youll see that Flyers centre Claude Giroux is the
leagues top scorer over the past four years and Giroux led the Flyers
resurgence, finishing this year with 86 points after starting the year with
seven points in the first 15 games. If Giroux puts the Flyers on his back, and
can shake Rangers defenceman Ryan McDonagh, then that could easily be enough to
swing the series in Philadelphias favour. This should be a close enough series
that, any out-of-the-ordinary performances can make the difference, but the edge
going in goes to the Rangers. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series
Anaheim 31.3 28.7 Frederik Andersen 0.923 17.49 Dallas 31.7 30.4 Kari Lehtonen
0.919 16.28 Verdict: This isnt a particularly lopsided matchup for what is,
effectively, a 1 vs. 8 matchup. The Ducks have mediocre possession numbers, but
their overall shot differential is solid. Thing is, what has driven their
success this season is scoring on an absurd 10.7% of their 5-on-5 score-close
shots -- Colorado is second-best at 8.6% -- and percentages that far above the
norm are really tough to bank on. The other factor is the Ducks goaltending.
Based on their hesitance to use Jonas Hiller down the stretch, its entirely
conceivable that the Ducks will put their playoff fate in the hands of rookie
Frederik Andersen and John Gibson, who have been really good, but have combined
for 31 career NHL starts. The task for the Stars, then, is to somehow get the
Ducks finishing to fall into more normal range (or, if it falls below, even
better), which means goaltender Kari Lehtonen will have to be sharp. That
practically goes without saying though. A lower-seeded team is likely going to
need good goaltending, but if the Stars get it from Lehtonen, that can level the
ice pretty quickly. Then it might be a matter of the stars. Can Ryan Getzlaf and
Corey Perry get the better of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin? Team SF SA Goaltender
SV% Expected GF/Series Colorado 29.5 32.7 Semyon Varlamov 0.927 18.22 Minnesota
26.6 27.7 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.909 15.15 Verdict: This is the kind of series that
could lead to upset, as the underdog Wild tend towards a low-event game -- no
playoff team has fewer shots (for and against) in their games than the 54.3
averaged by the Wild and reducing those opportunities can undermine skills
chances of winning in a short series. Furthermore, the Avalanche are missing
leading scorer Matt Duchene (and possibly puck-moving defenceman Tyson Barrie),
so they may currently be less than the sum of their overall parts this season.
Where the edge really goes to the Avalanche is in net, where Semyon Varlamov has
been great. The Wild might be a reasonable upset pick if you have faith in their
goaltending but this is a team that goes into the playoffs with Ilya Bryzgalov
between the pipes. Bryzgalovs track record over the past couple seasons makes it
difficult to project him outdueling Varlamov head-to-head, which means that the
Wild will need to better control play. Admittedly, thats possible since the
Avalanche have the worst Fenwick Close of any playoff team and two of their top
three score close possession players (Duchene and Barrie) are hurt. Team SF SA
Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series St. Louis 29.3 26.4 Ryan Miller 0.918 16.41
Chicago 33.1 27.2 Corey Crawford 0.917 17.08 Verdict: For much of the season,
the St .Louis Blues were rolling along and looked to have the possession game to
compete with the best in the league, but they stumbled down the stretch as
injuries dotted their lineup and now they are blessed with a first-round matchup
against the defending champs, a team that has stellar possession numbers and
might be a touch healthier at this point; at least thats the expectation with
Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews apparently ready for the postseason. If the
Blues arent healthy enough to ice a credible lineup, then it wont much matter
how well goaltender Ryan Miller plays but, when he was acquired, Miller was
supposed to be a difference-maker for the Blues. After a .903 save percentage in
19 games with St. Louis, though, its asking for a leap of faith to believe that
Miller gives the Blues any kind of significant advantage over Corey Crawford.
The angle for the Blues may be to lean more on their defence, which might be the
leagues best group, one through six, and if Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester,
Kevin Shattenkirk and company can control play or at least limit the extent to
which the Blackhawks control play, then it will give the Blues a chance. Its not
as good a chance as they would have expected a month or two ago, but injuries
can strike at inopportune moments and its looking like that could be the Blues
undoing this year. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series San Jose 34.8
27.8 Antti Niemi 0.913 18.15 Los Angeles 31.6 26.2 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.09
Verdict: We finally come to the elite matchup of the first round, with two bona
fide Cup contenders squaring off, and look at how close the forecasted numbers
have the series. Its a coin flip, close enough that whichever goaltender plays
well should be enough to tip the balance. Over the past two seasons, Quick has
played more playoff games than any other, while posting a .940 save percentage
so, even if his numbers were average during this season, he might get the edge
over a similarly-mediocre Niemi. If the result is going in the Sharks favour,
though, they may have a deeper group of forward, particularly with Tomas Hertl
(and possibly Raffi Torres) coming back from injuries. The biggest difference in
the series could be the status of Kings defenceman Drew Doughty, who is expected
to be ready when the series starts, but if hes not, the Sharks have the forwards
that can take advantage of that absence. Ultimately, this is such a close
forecast that one bounce, one deflection, one call, could make the difference.
Scott Cullen can be reached at
[email protected] and followed on Twitter
at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on
Facebook.
Custom Washington Nationals Jersey . -- League scoring leader Anthony Mantha had two goals and two assists to lead the
Val-dOr Foreurs over the Blainville-Boisbriand Phoenix 6-3 on Wednesay in Quebec
Major Junior Hockey League play on Wednesday.
Michael Taylor Jersey .com) - Pittsburgh Steelers running back LeVeon Bell, Baltimore Ravens linebacker Elvis Dumervil
and New England Patriots punter Ryan Allen were selected as the AFCs top players
for Week 14 of the NFL season.LONDON -- Arsenal midfielder Jack Wilshere has
been handed a two-match ban by the English Football Association for making an
abusive gesture toward Manchester City fans during a Premier League match. The
FA rejected Wilsheres appeal that the length of his punishment was "clearly
excessive" and said Thursday his suspension begins with immediate effect. He
will miss league matches against Chelsea on Monday and West Ham on DDec.
Gio Gonzalez Jersey. 26. The England international raised his middle finger toward City supporters during Saturdays
game at Etihad Stadium, which Arsenal lost 6-3. The incident wasnt seen by match
officials at the time but the FA charged Wilshere retrospectively after a panel
studied video footage. Blackpool winger Tom Ince was given a two-game ban when
he was retrospectively charged for a similar incident this season.
Cheap Jerseys From China ' ' '
