Chinese consumers are finally starting to spend again after the pandemic-induced slump, but the recovery is unbalanced and overly
reliant on luxury goods, with poorer Chinese still cautious.To get more
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Consumption has started to catch up to the much stronger rebound in industrial
output, with retail sales growing in August for the first time this
year. Spending on luxury goods, cars and electronics is leading the
charge, rising faster than food, clothing and other essentials.Source:
National Bureau of Statistics, China Passenger Car Association, Gaming
Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau SAR.
Note: All data shows % change from previous year*Feb. values show combined Jan.-Feb. data.
While the supply side of Chinas economy has shown resilience, a strong and
broad rebound in spending is needed for a more meaningful economic
recovery. Even though the virus is under control, income and job losses
due to the pandemic have made poorer Chinese unwilling or unable to
increase spending, keeping a lid on the rebound.
“Higher-income households have probably built up savings, because of the forced
reduction in consumption during lockdown, and could now be ready for a
spending spree. It is lower-income households that face a longer slog of
normalizing their finances,” He Wei, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics,
said in a recent report.
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What Bloombergs Economists Say...
“Consumer confidence appears to be coming back even without a vaccine. This is
reflected in strong pickups in sales of non-essentials, such as
cosmetics and jewelry, in recent months. Improved sentiment and spending
at home in lieu of overseas trips should help support private
consumption.” Luxury spending in China will grow 20%-30% this year,
according to a report from Boston Consulting Group, but much of that
growth is going to come from consumers in the 50 largest and richest
cities. People in the other 2,206 cities bought only a quarter of all
luxury goods in April-July this year, and their spending was down 4%
compared with 2019, according to the report.
