After opening last week at the level of 1.1900, EUR/USD spent most of
the week advancing. EUR/USD gained over half a cent throughout the week
overall, and closed the week in the region of 1.1981.
EUR/USD is once again jumping higher. EUR/USD has touched on a monthly
best level of 1.2044, and is currently trending in the region of
US Dollar strength could remain the primary cause of movement until
later in the week, when key Eurozone data and European Central Bank
(ECB) news is expected.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Benefitting from Hopes of Improving Eurozone Vaccination Rollout
Demand for the Euro continues to be driven largely by strength in
rival currencies. The Euros gains since last week have been due mostly
to the weakening Pound (GBP) and US Dollar.
In particular, the Euro has a negative correlation with its biggest
rival the US Dollar. This means the Euro has been strengthening as the
US Dollar falls in recent weeks.
On top of this though, hopes are rising that the Eurozones coronavirus
vaccination situation is improving. According to Yohay Elam, Analyst at
The good news for the old continent is that the vaccination campaign
has picked up and bottlenecks seem to have been removed. Nearly 25 doses
have been given per person – or nearly 20% have received at least one
shot.The US Dollar has plummeted in recent weeks, as markets unravel
speculation that the Federal Reserve could tighten US monetary policy
any time soon.
Unsurprising US inflation rate data doused any hopes for a surge in
inflation. Investors are still selling the US Dollar in favour for
currencies considered riskier, for their higher yields.
According to Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole:
‘Indeed, the USD rally is all but distant memory by now and the
currency’s underperformance seems to reflect the apparent divergence in
the outlook between the slumping UST yields and the rather perky bond
yields elsewhere,Speculation for a more hawkish Federal Reserve as all
but evaporated, but could strong Eurozone data lead to higher European
Central Bank (ECB) tightening bets?
The ECB is expected to hold its April policy decision on Thursday. If
the bank takes a more optimistic tone on the Eurozone economy, it could
lead to stronger support for the Euro.
Euro and US Dollar investors are also awaiting upcoming data. While
there will not be much notable US data in the coming sessions, some
Eurozone data towards the end of the week could cause Euro movement.
French and Eurozone confidence data are due for publication on Thursday, as are US jobless claims and home sales.
Then, Eurozone PMI projections for April will be published on Friday.
These could cause big movement in the Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange
rate if they cause any surprises about the Eurozone outlook.